Mũbango wa Fibonacci
Mũbango-inĩ wa Fibonacci wa rureti, mbeca cia beti irũmagĩrĩra 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13… Thiĩ mbere ikinya rĩmwe thuutha wa kũhootwo, na ũcooke thuutha makinya merĩ thuutha wa kũhoota.
Ndũhootaga gĩthiũrũrũki; gũtirĩ mũbango wa mbeca cia beti ũhootaga. Nĩ wa kahora gũkĩra Martingale, nĩ ũndũ ũcio ũkirĩrĩaga mĩhari mĩraihu makĩria ya hasara mbere ya gũkinya mũhaka, na ũcookagia mbeca kahora makĩria. Hasara ĩrĩa yetagĩrĩrwo nĩ o 2.70% icio cia mbeca ciothe cia betimbecaMbeca ciothe cia betiMbeca ciothe iria ciabetirwo ihinda-inĩ rĩa mũthako kana ihinda rĩngĩ, hamwe na mbeca cia ũhootani iria ciabetirwo rĩngĩ. Ningĩ metagwo: handle, action.Thoma wothe →.
Ũrĩa mũhari ũcio ũkaagwo
O namba nĩ mũigano wa namba igĩrĩ iria ciĩ mbere yayo.
Nĩ ũndũ ũcio thutha wa 8 na 13 nĩ 21.
Ruta mbica ya o namba ta mũraba, na mĩraba nĩ ĩiganĩranaga: o mũraba mũerũ nĩ mũraihu ta ĩrĩa ĩĩrĩ ĩrĩ mbere yaguo ĩkĩigwo hamwe. Gĩcunjĩ kĩa inya kĩa duara mũraba-inĩ o wothe nĩ kĩnyitanagia gĩgatuĩka mũthiũrũrũko wa nyoka.
Thiĩ mũhari-inĩ
Hasara ĩthiagĩra kĩgerero kĩmwe mwena wa ũrĩo. Ũhootani ũcookagĩra na thutha ibicio igĩrĩ.
Mbeca cia beti na mĩico irĩ na ithimo cia beti ya kĩambĩrĩria.
Mũtaratara wa Fibonacci wa rureti ũrutaga wĩra atĩa?
Andĩka namba cia FibonaccimũbangoFibonacciMũgarũrĩro wa beti ũrĩa ũrũmagĩrĩra mũhari 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13…: kĩgerero kĩmwe mbere thutha wa hasara, igerero igĩrĩ thutha thutha wa ũhootani.Thoma wothe →: 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34, 55, 89, 144. O ĩmwe nĩ mũigano wa namba icio igĩrĩ ciĩ mbere yayo. Ambĩrĩria na ya mbere na ũbeti ithimombecaGĩthimoMbeca cia beti cia mũthingi iria mũtaratara kana mũthaki ahũthagĩra. Mĩgarũrĩro ya beti ĩtaarĩrio na ithimo nĩguo ĩhũthĩke metha-inĩ o yothe.Thoma wothe → o icio. Wahootwo, thiĩ ikinya rĩmwe mwena wa ũrĩo. Wahoota, thiĩ makinya merĩ mwena wa ũmotho, kana ũcooke kĩambĩrĩria angĩkorwo gũtirĩ handũ. Ũcio nĩguo mũtaratara wothe. Metha ĩyo nĩ ĩonanagia thogora wa o ikinya: mũhari wa hasara ũrĩa wagirio nĩ mũhaka wa methamethaMũhaka wa methaBeti nini mũno na nene mũno ĩrĩa yĩtĩkĩrĩtio. Mũhaka wa igũrũ nĩguo ũrũgamagia mĩgarũrĩro ya beti ya kũingĩhia maita meerĩ.Thoma wothe → kana nĩ mbeca cia mũthakombecaMbeca cia mũthakoMbeca ciothe iria ciigĩtwo cia gũthaka. Ũrũgamĩrĩri wa mbeca cia mũthako nĩ gũtua nĩ cigana ũngĩiga ũgwati-inĩ beti-inĩ o ĩmwe na ihinda-inĩ o rĩmwe rĩa mũthako.Thoma wothe → ciaku ũũragithagia mũigano wa mbeca ciothe iria ciabetiwo nginya hĩndĩ ĩyo.
Ihinda rĩa mũthako rĩonekaga atĩa?
Oya beti ya kĩambĩrĩria ya $10 na mĩthiũrũrũko inyanya: U U H U U U H H (U = ũũra, H = hoota). Mbeca cia beti nĩ 10, 10, 20 (hoota, cooka thuutha makinya merĩ, nginya ikinya 1), 10, 10, 20, 30 (hoota, cooka thuutha makinya merĩ, nginya ikinya 2), 10 (hoota, cooka kĩambĩrĩria). Hasara: 10 + 10 + 10 + 10 + 20 = 60. Ũhootani: 20 + 30 + 10 = 60. Hasara ithano, ũhootani ũtatũ, na ũrĩ o harĩa wambĩrĩirie. Ũcio nĩguo ũthaka wa mũtaratara ũyũ. Thogora waguo ũrĩ mũhari-inĩ o ũcio: nĩ kwabataranirie beti cia $120 nĩguo ũkinye hau, na o dola ĩrĩa ĩbetetwo ĩkuuaga uumithio wa kasinohithabuUumithio wa kasinoGĩcunjĩ kĩa o mbeca cia beti kĩrĩa kasino ĩigaga kũringana na gatagatĩ: 2.70% rureti-inĩ ya Rũraya.Thoma wothe →.
Nĩ kĩĩ gĩtũmaga ũcooke thuutha makinya merĩ, na ti rĩmwe?
Tondũ ũhootani ũmwe ũrĩhaga hasara igĩrĩ biũ. O namba nĩ mũigano wa namba icio igĩrĩ ciĩ mbere yayo, nĩ ũndũ ũcio ũhootani wa ithimo 5 ũcookagia 2 na 3 iria ciaũrirwo o mbere yaguo. Wĩciririe ngathĩ: ikinya rĩmwe igũrũ o hasara, makinya merĩ thĩ o ũhootani. Ikinya rĩrĩa ũrũgamĩte nĩ thiirĩ waku. Ikinya-inĩ 5 ũrĩ na hasara ya ithimo 7, ikinya-inĩ 8 ũrĩ na hasara ya 33, na wacooka ikinya-inĩ rĩa mbere ũrĩ o harĩa wambĩrĩirie biũ. Baita yumaga o ũhootani-inĩ wa ikinya rĩa mbere, gĩthimo kĩmwe o rĩmwe.
Tondũ ũhootani nĩ ũkuhĩrĩirie kũiganana na hasara, makinya merĩ harĩ rĩmwe nĩ ũigwĩkaga ta ũndũ mwega, na ihinda rĩingĩ ngathĩ nĩ ĩcookagia thĩ ma. Ũndũ ũrĩa ũhithĩtwo nĩ atĩ makinya nĩ mararaihaga ũrĩa ũkwambata. Ũhootani ikũmi ikinya-inĩ rĩa mbere ũrehaga ithimo 10. Hasara ithatũ makinya-inĩ 6, 7 na 8 ĩũragithagia 8 + 13 + 21 = 42.
- p10 −$500
- p25 −$500
- gatagatĩ ka mũhari −$500
- p75 +$250
- p90 +$920
Mũtaratara wa Fibonacci nĩ ũrutaga wĩra?
Aca. Ti ta njĩra ya kũrĩkia ũrĩ na baita. Mũtarĩre nĩ o ũrĩa wa mĩtaratara ĩrĩa ĩngĩ yothe: o beti ĩũraga 1/37 ya mbeca ciayo kũringana na gatagatĩ, nĩ ũndũ ũcio mũhari wothe ũũraga 1/37 ya mbeca ciothe iria ciabetiwo. Gũtũmĩra mũhari wa namba cia Fibonacci rureti-inĩ gũtigarũraga ũguo, tondũ gĩthiũrũrũki kĩrĩhaga marĩhi o macio o ũnene wa cipumbecaCipuKĩndũ kĩonanagia mbeca ciathimĩtwo, kĩigagwo ramani-inĩ ya metha nĩguo ũbeti. Ningĩ: check.Thoma wothe → ũngĩigana atĩa. Mbeca cia beti cia Fibonacci nĩ ciambataga kahora, nĩ ũndũ ũcio ĩbetaga mbeca nyingĩ makĩria o mũthiũrũrũko gũkĩra beti cia mũigana ũmwemũbangoBeti cia mũigana ũmweKũbeti mbeca o iria ciigana o mũthiũrũrũko. Nĩ gĩthimi kĩrĩa o mũgarũrĩro wa beti ũgeragĩrio nakĩo.Thoma wothe →, na hasara ĩrĩa yetagĩrĩrwohithabuHasara ĩrĩa yetagĩrĩrwoThogora ũrĩa wetagĩrĩrwo ũingĩhĩtio na mbeca ciothe iria ciabetirwo; mbeca iria ithiraga kũringana na gatagatĩ ihinda-inĩ rĩa mũthako kana ihinda rĩngĩ.Thoma wothe → o ihinda rĩa mũthako nĩ nene makĩria. MartingalemũbangoMartingaleMũgarũrĩro wa beti ũrĩa ũingĩhagia beti maita meerĩ thutha wa o hasara. Rora gĩcunjĩ kĩa Mĩbango wone ũrĩa ũrutaga na ũrĩa ũtarutaga.Thoma wothe → ĩbetaga nyingĩ o makĩria, na ĩkaũra nyingĩ makĩria.
Nĩ ũrĩ na ũgitĩri makĩria gũkĩra Martingale?
Nĩ wa kahora makĩria, na ũndũ ũcio ti o ũmwe na ũgitĩri. Mbeca cia beti cia Fibonacci ikũraga ta maita 1.6× o ikinya handũ ha 2×, nĩ ũndũ ũcio mũhaka wa $500 ũkinyagwo thuutha wa hasara ta ikũmi ciĩ mũhari kuuma beti ya kĩambĩrĩria ya $10, handũ ha ithathatũ. Ũguo ũtũmaga rũhiinga rũkorwo rĩmwe na rĩmwe makĩria: hasara ikũmi ciĩ mũhari cia beti cia marĩhi maigana nĩ (19/37)¹⁰ ≈ 0.13%, gũkĩra (19/37)⁶ ≈ 1.8% harĩ ithathatũ. No rũhiinga nĩ rũraihu makĩria, tondũ mbeca nyingĩ makĩria nĩ ciabetiwo njĩra-inĩ, na ũhootani ũmwe ndũngĩrũcookia.
Namba icio ciumaga kũ?
Ciumaga ndaĩ-inĩ ya mbũkũ. Leonardo wa Pisa, ũrĩa warĩkia gwĩtwo Fibonacci, nĩ aamĩandĩkire ibuku-inĩ rĩake Liber Abaci rĩa 1202: ambĩrĩria na mbũkũ igĩrĩ (njamba na ngoroko), reke o igĩrĩ icio ciare igĩrĩ ingĩ njerũ o mweri kuuma mweri wacio wa kerĩ, na ũtare mĩhĩrĩga yacio. Macokio nĩ 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13. We ti we warĩ wa mbere kuona watho ũcio. Athomi a India a mũthiĩre wa ciugo cia rwĩmbo nĩ maandĩkĩte mbere ĩyo: Singh (1985) nĩ aũrũmĩrĩirie nginya harĩ Virahanka, gatagatĩ ka 600 na 800, na thuutha ũcio harĩ Gopala na Hemachandra.
Gũtirĩ o na ũmwe wao warĩ na gĩthiũrũrũki meciria-inĩ. Ihumo iria ihũthĩrĩtwo haha itiugaga nũũ wambĩrĩirie kũbeti mbeca na mũhari ũcio. Kĩrĩa ionanagia nĩ atĩ hithabu yaguo na hithabu ya rureti itirĩ ĩcemanaga: ĩmwe yugaga ũrĩa mbeca cia beti ikũraga, ĩrĩa ĩngĩ ĩkoiga ũrĩa o beti ĩcookagia.
Nĩ mbeca igana atĩa ciũraga thuutha wa mũhari wa hasara?
Maũndũ meerĩ ma hithabu nĩ matũmaga metha ĩrĩa ĩrĩ igũrũ ĩtaũke gũthuthuria. Thuutha wa hasara n ciĩ mũhari, mbeca ciothe iria ciaũrirwo nĩ namba ya Fibonacci ya (n + 2) kũruta 1, ĩrĩa ĩheanaga 1, 2, 4, 7, 12, 20 na ingĩ, na beti ĩrĩa ĩrũmĩrĩire nĩ namba ya Fibonacci ya (n + 1). Bollman (2021) nĩ oonanagia mũico o ũcio na induction harĩ mũhari ũrĩa wambĩrĩirie 1, 2, 3, ũrĩa ũthamagia o namba handũ hamwe. Mũhaka-inĩ wa ithimo 500 kuuma kĩambĩrĩria kĩa gĩthimo 1, Martingale ndĩngĩhota kũiga beti yayo ya namba 10, ithimo 512. Fibonacci no ĩige beti yayo ya namba 14, ithimo 377, no ti ya namba 15, 610.
Nĩ kĩĩ kĩgarũkaga harĩ dazeni kana koramu?
Harĩ dazenibetiDazeni1–12, 13–24 kana 25–36, marĩhi 2:1.Thoma wothe → kana koramubetiKoramuNamba ikũmi na igĩrĩ koramu-inĩ ĩmwe ya kũrũgama ya ramani ya metha, marĩhi 2:1.Thoma wothe →, ĩrĩa ĩrĩhaga 2 kwa 1, gũcooka thuutha gũtibataranagia. Ũhootani harĩ beti F ũrĩhaga 2F, ĩrĩa hĩndĩ ciothe ĩrĩ nyingĩ gũkĩra mbeca ciothe iria ciaũrirwo mbere yaguo, nĩ ũndũ ũcio o ũhootani ũrĩkagia mũhari ũrĩ na baita. Thogora nĩ atĩ dazeni ĩhootaga o maita 12 thĩinĩ wa 37, nĩ ũndũ ũcio mĩhari mĩraihu ya hasara ĩkoragwo kaingĩ mũno makĩria: hasara ikũmi na inya ciĩ mũhari cia dazeni ikoragwo ta rĩmwe thĩinĩ wa magerio 242, gũkĩra ta rĩmwe thĩinĩ wa 11,000 harĩ ndunebetiNduneBeti ya marĩhi maigana ya namba 18 ndune. Kĩbaranja: rouge.Thoma wothe →.
Gũkĩrĩ atĩa ũngĩrũga o thuutha wa ũhootani ũĩrĩ ũrũmĩrĩranĩte?
Mũthemba ũngĩ ũthiaga mbere ikinya rĩmwe thuutha wa o mũthiũrũrũko, wahoota kana wahootwo, na ũkarũga o thuutha wa ũhootani ũĩrĩ ũrũmĩrĩranĩte. Na hasara n mbere ya ũhootani ũcio ũĩrĩ, baita nĩ namba ya Fibonacci ya (n + 1) kũongerera 1: nini rĩrĩa ũhootani wakinya tene, nene makĩria rĩrĩa wakinya thuutha, na ĩhootetwo na mbeca cia beti iria ikũrĩte o ũguo. Ũhootani ũĩrĩ wa tene ũkinyaga hĩndĩ ciothe na mbeca nini cia beti; ũrĩa wa thuutha no ũbatarie beti nene o hĩndĩ ĩrĩa ihinda rĩa mũthako rĩũrĩte makĩria.
Kĩigerekania · Fibonacci
Mahinda 2,000 ma beti cia marĩhi maigana, kuuma mbeca cia mũthako cia $1,000.
Beti ya kĩambĩrĩria $10 · mũhaka wa metha $500 · mĩthiũrũrũko 100 o ihinda
Mũhari wa hasara ũũkaga maita maigana atĩa
Beti ya marĩhi maigana gĩthiũrũrũki-inĩ kĩa thero ĩmwe nĩ ĩhootagwo mĩthiũrũrũko 19 harĩ 37. O mũhari nĩ mweke wa atĩ mĩthiũrũrũko ĩmwe ĩrũmanĩrĩire yothe ĩhootwo, na hasara ĩrĩa mũthaki wa Fibonacci, ũrĩa ũthiagĩra kĩgerero kĩmwe mũhari-inĩ thutha wa o hasara, ũkoretwo nayo hĩndĩ ĩyo.
| hasara ithingithanĩtie | mweke | ta 1 harĩ | hasara nginya rĩu | beti ĩrĩa ĩngĩ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 51.4% | 2 | $1 | $1 |
| 2 | 26.4% | 4 | $2 | $2 |
| 3 | 13.5% | 7 | $4 | $3 |
| 4 | 7.0% | 14 | $7 | $5 |
| 5 | 3.6% | 28 | $12 | $8 |
| 6 | 1.8% | 55 | $20 | $13 |
| 7 | 0.94% | 106 | $33 | $21 |
| 8 | 0.48% | 207 | $54 | $34 |
| 9 | 0.25% | 403 | $88 | $55 |
| 10 | 0.13% | 784 | $143 | $89 |
| 11 | 0.065% | 1527 | $232 | $144 |
| 12 | 0.034% | 2974 | $376 | $233 |
| 13 | 0.017% | 5792 | $609 | $377 |
| 14 | 0.0089% | 11279 | $986 | $610 |
| 15 | 0.0046% | 21965 | $1,596 | $987 |
Mweke nĩ 19/37 ũkĩingĩhio na guo mwene rĩmwe o hasara, gũtarũo kuuma mũthiũrũrũko ũmwe mũtuĩku. Ihinda iraya rĩa mũthako rĩrĩ na mĩthiũrũrũko mĩingĩ harĩa mũhari ta ũcio ũngĩambĩrĩria, nĩ ũndũ ũcio hwaĩ-inĩ ũmwe ũhoro ũcio nĩ ũngĩhoteka mũno gũkĩra ũrĩa mũhari ũmwe ũngĩonania.
Ciũria
Ĩĩ: mbere thuutha wa kũhoota, thuutha thuutha wa kũhootwo. Ĩĩkaga ta ParolimũbangoParoliMũgarũrĩro wa beti wa ũhootani: ingĩhia maita meerĩ thutha wa ũhootani, cooka kĩambĩrĩria thutha wa hasara kana thutha wa ũhootani ithatũ ũrũmanĩrĩire. Ningĩ: Martingale ya kũgarũrũka.Thoma wothe → ya kahora makĩria.
Gũthaka na hithabu
Geria ciũria ici wee mwene mbere. O icookio nĩ rĩhingĩtwo; rĩhingũre rĩrĩa ũgaakorwo wĩhaarĩirie.
Thaka mũthemba ũrĩa ũthiĩaga kĩrenge kĩmwe na mbere mũhari-inĩ thuutha wa o mũthiũrũrũko, ũhoote kana ũhootwo, na ũkarũgama thuutha wa ũhootani ũĩrĩ ũkĩrũmĩrĩrana: mbeca cia beti 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8 na ũguo na ũguo. Mĩico ikũmi na ĩna ya mbere nĩ H U H U U U H U U U H U U H. Ũrĩ ha, na beti ĩrĩa ĩrũmĩrĩire nĩ ĩrĩkũ?
Onia icookio
Icookio Ũrĩ thĩ na ithimombecaGĩthimoMbeca cia beti cia mũthingi iria mũtaratara kana mũthaki ahũthagĩra. Mĩgarũrĩro ya beti ĩtaarĩrio na ithimo nĩguo ĩhũthĩke metha-inĩ o yothe.Thoma wothe → 22. Beti ĩrĩa ĩrũmĩrĩire nĩ ithimo 610, na ũhootani ũngĩrĩkia ihinda rĩa mũthako ũrĩ igũrũ na 588.
Mbeca cia beti nĩ namba ikũmi na inya cia mbere cia FibonaccimũbangoFibonacciMũgarũrĩro wa beti ũrĩa ũrũmagĩrĩra mũhari 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13…: kĩgerero kĩmwe mbere thutha wa hasara, igerero igĩrĩ thutha thutha wa ũhootani.Thoma wothe →: 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34, 55, 89, 144, 233 na 377. Ongerera ũhootani na ũrute hasara: +1 −1 +2 −3 −5 −8 +13 −21 −34 −55 +89 −144 −233 +377 = −22.
Mũico wa kũrigĩrĩria warĩ ũhootani, nĩ ũndũ ũcio ũhootani ũmwe ũngĩ nĩ ũrĩkagia. Mbeca cia beti ĩrĩa ĩrũmĩrĩire nĩ 610: ũhootani ũtigaga +588, hasara ĩtigaga −632 na beti ĩrũmĩrĩire ya 987.
Mũthemba ũyũ hingo ciothe ũrĩkagĩra ũrĩ igũrũ, no gũkũ ũbataraga beti ya ithimo 610 nĩguo ũhote. Na mawatho ma kawaida, ikinya igĩrĩ na thuutha thuutha wa ũhootani, mĩico o ĩyo ikũmi na ĩna ĩgũtigaga ũrĩ thĩ na gĩthimo 1 tu na beti ĩrũmĩrĩire ya 2. Bollman (2021), ũrĩa wambagĩrĩria mũhari na 1, 2, 3, akoona thĩ na 1 na beti ĩrũmĩrĩire ya 3. Mawatho ma kawaida mahootagwo nĩ kũnini gũkũ tondũ o ũhootani nĩ ũcookagia mbeca cia beti thĩ.
mũthiũrũrũkombeca cia betimũicomũigana ũrathiĩ11H+121U032H+243U−155U−668U−14713H−1821U−22934U−561055U−1111189H−2212144U−16613233U−39914377H−22Mũthemba-inĩ o ũcio, nĩkĩ hasara n irũmĩrĩirwo nĩ ũhootani ũĩrĩ hingo ciothe ĩtigaga baita ya namba ya Fibonacci ya (n + 1) ĩongereirwo 1?
Onia icookio
Icookio Hasara n icookanagĩrĩrio igatuĩka namba ya Fibonacci ya (n + 2) ĩrutĩtwo 1, na ũhootani ũĩrĩ nĩ namba icio igĩrĩ irũmĩrĩire, iria hamwe ikĩrĩte ũcio na namba ya (n + 1) ĩongereirwo 1.
Andĩka F₁, F₂, F₃ … handũ ha 1, 1, 2, 3, 5 … O namba nĩ mũcookanĩrĩrio wa icio igĩrĩ irĩ mbere yayo.
Hasara: F₁ + F₂ + … + Fₙ. Ongerera 1 mũcookanĩrĩrio-inĩ ũcio, ĩandĩkĩtwo ta F₂, na ũkanyiha: F₂ + F₁ = F₃, ĩcooke F₃ + F₂ = F₄, na ũguo na ũguo, nginya mũcookanĩrĩrio wothe ũtuĩke Fₙ₊₂. Nĩ ũndũ ũcio hasara yothe nĩ Fₙ₊₂ − 1.
Ũhootani nĩ mbeca cia beti icio igĩrĩ irũmĩrĩire, Fₙ₊₁ na Fₙ₊₂. Baita: Fₙ₊₁ + Fₙ₊₂ − (Fₙ₊₂ − 1) = Fₙ₊₁ + 1. Harĩ hasara inya, ũcio nĩ F₅ + 1 = ithimo 6.
Gĩa gũtheka
Kĩgerekanio kĩa thahabu gĩacemania na kĩbaũ kĩa beti nene makĩria.
Kũrĩa ũhoro uumĩte
- RouletteDoc. Strategy description and examples.
- Roulette77. Strategy description and examples.
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- Epstein, R. A. The Theory of Gambling and Statistical Logic, 2nd ed.
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