Mũbango · Mũgarũrĩro ũrĩa wa hasara · ndagĩka 9

Mũbango wa Martingale

Mũbango wa Martingale rureti-inĩ nĩ ũingĩhagia beti maita meerĩ thutha wa o hasara na ũgacooka beti ya kĩambĩrĩria thutha wa ũhootani. O ũhootani nĩ ũcookagia hasara ciothe iria ciakorwo ho hamwe na gĩthimo kĩmwe kĩa kĩambĩrĩria. Karatathi gaka nĩ konanagia ũrĩa ũndũ ũcio wĩkaga mbeca cia mũthako, na nĩkĩ ndũngĩgarũra hasara ĩrĩa yetagĩrĩrwo.

Macokio ma ihenyaNdũhootanaga gĩthiũrũrũki. Ta mũbango wa rureti wa kũingĩhia maita meerĩ, Martingale ĩrehaga ũhootani mũnini maita maingĩ na hasara nene rĩmwe na rĩmwe. Thĩinĩ wa mĩthiũrũrũko o yothe hasara ĩrĩa yetagĩrĩrwo o na rĩu nĩ 2.70% ya mbeca ciothe cia beti, na tondũ mũgarũrĩro ũyũ ũbetaga mbeca nyingĩ, hasara ĩrĩa yetagĩrĩrwo o ihinda nĩ nene gũkĩra ya beti cia mũigana ũmwe, ti nini.

Mũtaratara wa Martingale rureti-inĩ ũrutaga wĩra atĩa?

Ũngĩhootwo, ingĩhia maita meerĩ. Ũngĩhoota, cooka beti ya kĩambĩrĩria. Ũcio nĩguo mũtaratara wothe. Na beti ya kĩambĩrĩria ya $10 na mũhaka wa metha wa $500, mũhari ũthiraga thutha wa hasara ithathatũ. Koramu ya mũthia nĩ mweke wa gũkinya kĩgero kĩu harĩ beti ya marĩhi maigana, harĩa o hasara ĩrĩ na mweke wa 19/37.

hasara #beti ĩrĩa ĩrũmĩrĩirembeca ciothe ũgwati-inĩp(gũkinya)

0$10$10100.00%

1$20$3051.35%

2$40$7026.37%

3$80$15013.54%

4$160$3106.95%

5$320$6303.57%

6$640$1,2701.83%

7$1,280$2,5500.94%

Beti ya kĩambĩrĩria $10, mũhaka wa metha $500. Thutha wa hasara ithathatũ beti ĩrĩa ĩrũmĩrĩire nĩ $640, ĩkĩrĩte mũhaka: mũgarũrĩro nĩ ũthũkaga na $630 ikoorwo. Mweke wa hasara ithathatũ irũmanĩrĩire harĩ ndune nĩ (19/37)^6 = 1.83%, hakuhĩ rĩmwe o igerio 55.

Thiĩ mũtaratara-inĩ

Hasara ĩingĩhagia mbeca cia beti maita meerĩ. Ũhootani ũcookaga kĩambĩrĩria.

beti ĩrĩa ĩngĩ1mũico nginya rĩu0mĩthiũrũrũko0

Mbeca cia beti na mĩico irĩ na ithimo cia beti ya kĩambĩrĩria.

Ihinda rĩa mũthako rĩhaanaga atĩa?

Makinya manini ma kwambata, thutha ũcio irima. Mũbango-inĩ wa Martingale rureti-inĩ o mũhari ũrĩa ũrĩkĩtie wa kũingĩhia maita meerĩ nĩ wongagĩrĩra beti ĩmwe ya kĩambĩrĩria, kwoguo mũhari wambataga wega. Mũhari ũrĩa ũkinyaga mũhaka wa $500 nĩ ũcookagia $630 o rĩmwe: makinya 63 macio.

Mahinda ikũmi ma Martingale, kĩambĩrĩria $10, mũhaka $500mũico gũkĩgereranio na kĩambĩrĩria

mahinda 1,000 × mĩthiũrũrũko 500 · rangi wa zambarau p10/p25/p75/p90, rangi wa ihũa rĩa matu gatagatĩ ka mũhari, ngerekano 83 itoonekaga wega · thiĩ na kĩmenyithia igũrũ rĩa mbica nĩguo wone icunjĩ mũthiũrũrũko-inĩ

p10 −$1,000
p25 −$1,000
gatagatĩ ka mũhari −$1,000
p75 +$930
p90 +$1,830

mahinda 1,000 × mĩthiũrũrũko 500 · mũhari wa y nĩ mũtinie nginya gĩcunjĩ kĩa igana kĩa 1 nginya 99 (mĩthia −$1,000 nginya +$2,640) · mĩthiũrũrũko 500 · kĩambĩrĩria $10 · marĩhi maigana

O mũhari nĩ ihinda rĩmwe rĩa beti cia marĩhi maigana kuuma mbeca cia mũthako cia $1,000. Kwambata kũraya, kũgwa o rĩmwe.

Makinya manini ma kwambata, thutha ũcio irima rĩrĩa rĩcookagia mothe hamwe.

Kĩigerekania

O mũbangĩre nĩ ũthakaga mahinda 2,000 ma mũthako ma beti cia marĩhi maigana kuuma mbeca cia mũthako cia $1,000. Mĩico ĩgarũrũkaga o rĩmwe.

Beti ya kĩambĩrĩria

Mũhaka wa metha

Mĩthiũrũrũko o ihinda

Mĩico ya mahinda · mahinda 2,000 · mĩthiũrũrũko 100 · kĩambĩrĩria $10 · mũhaka $500hasara ← | → baita

−$1,000$0+$650

ikia kĩmenyithia mũhari-inĩ · mĩhari mitune nĩ mahinda ma hasara, ya matu nĩ ma ũhootani, ũrĩa mũtheru ũrĩ igũrũ rĩa $0

mahinda marĩ na baita

40.8%

mũico wa gatagatĩ ka mũhari

−$130

mũico wa gatagatĩ

−$66.44

mũgarũrĩro wa beti watharũkire

59.3% ya mahinda

gĩcunjĩ kĩa igana kĩa 5

−$1,000

gatagatĩ ka mũhari ka kũnyiha kũnene mũno

−$650

Mahinda maingĩ mathiraga marĩ na baita nini (40.8%), na ũguo nĩguo ũkucagia andũ. Gatagatĩ nĩ ka hasara (−$66.44) tondũ mahinda ma hasara nĩ manene: mũgarũrĩro wa beti nĩ wakinyire mũhaka wa metha mahinda-inĩ 59.3%. Mũthaki wa beti cia mũigana ũmwe cia $10 mĩthiũrũrũko-inĩ o ĩo etagĩrĩrwo kũũrwo nĩ ta $27.

Mũhari wa hasara ũũkaga maita maigana atĩa

Beti ya marĩhi maigana gĩthiũrũrũki-inĩ kĩa thero ĩmwe nĩ ĩhootagwo mĩthiũrũrũko 19 harĩ 37. O mũhari nĩ mweke wa atĩ mĩthiũrũrũko ĩmwe ĩrũmanĩrĩire yothe ĩhootwo, na hasara ĩrĩa mũthaki wa Martingale, ũrĩa wĩngĩhagia beti maita meerĩ thutha wa o hasara, ũkoretwo nayo hĩndĩ ĩyo.

Beti ya kĩambĩrĩria

hasara ithingithanĩtie	mweke	ta 1 harĩ	hasara nginya rĩu	beti ĩrĩa ĩngĩ
1	51.4%	2	$1	$2
2	26.4%	4	$3	$4
3	13.5%	7	$7	$8
4	7.0%	14	$15	$16
5	3.6%	28	$31	$32
6	1.8%	55	$63	$64
7	0.94%	106	$127	$128
8	0.48%	207	$255	$256
9	0.25%	403	$511	$512
10	0.13%	784	$1,023	$1,024
11	0.065%	1527	$2,047	$2,048
12	0.034%	2974	$4,095	$4,096
13	0.017%	5792	$8,191	$8,192
14	0.0089%	11279	$16,383	$16,384
15	0.0046%	21965	$32,767	$32,768

Mweke nĩ 19/37 ũkĩingĩhio na guo mwene rĩmwe o hasara, gũtarũo kuuma mũthiũrũrũko ũmwe mũtuĩku. Ihinda iraya rĩa mũthako rĩrĩ na mĩthiũrũrũko mĩingĩ harĩa mũhari ta ũcio ũngĩambĩrĩria, nĩ ũndũ ũcio hwaĩ-inĩ ũmwe ũhoro ũcio nĩ ũngĩhoteka mũno gũkĩra ũrĩa mũhari ũmwe ũngĩonania.

Mũhari wa hasara ikũmi na ithano ũkoragwo hakuhĩ rĩmwe o igerio 22,000. Ũguo ũiguagwo ta ũrĩ na ũgitĩri. Ti ũguo, nĩ ũndũ wa itũmi igĩrĩ. O mũthiũrũrũko nĩ wambagĩrĩria kĩgerio kĩerũ, na hwaĩ-inĩ ĩmwe ĩrĩ na mĩthiũrũrũko magana maingĩ. Na gũtirĩ mũndũ ũkinyaga ikũmi na ithano: kuuma kĩambĩrĩria kĩa $10, mũhaka wa $500 nĩ ũrĩkagia kũingĩhia maita meerĩ thutha wa hasara ithathatũ, iria ikoragwo hakuhĩ rĩmwe o igerio 55.

Nĩkĩ ndũngĩgarũra mweke?

Thogora ũrĩa wetagĩrĩrwo nĩ ũongagĩrĩrana. Angĩkorwo o beti yothe ĩrĩ na kĩrĩa kĩetagĩrĩrwo kĩa −2.70% ya mbeca ciayo cia beti, mũhari o wothe wa beti, o na mbeca cia beti ithuurwo na njĩra ĩrĩkũ, ũrĩ na kĩrĩa kĩetagĩrĩrwo kĩa −2.70% ya mbeca ciothe cia beti. Gũthuura mbeca cia beti no kũringane na mĩico ĩrĩa ĩhĩtũku; gũtingĩringana na mũico ũrĩa ũrũmĩrĩire.

E[Σ bᵢ·Xᵢ] = Σ bᵢ·E[Xᵢ] = −(1/37)·Σ bᵢ
bᵢ ĩthuurĩtwo mbere ya mũthiũrũrũko i; Xᵢ = ±1 ĩtegwatanĩte na bᵢ

Mahĩtia marĩa makoragwo kaingĩ

“Ũbataraga kũhoota rĩmwe tu nĩguo ũcookie kĩrĩa gĩothe.”

Nĩ ma thĩinĩ wa mũgarũrĩro ũrĩa ũthiaga nginya mũthia. Mũgarũrĩro ũrĩa ũtakinyaga mũthia, nĩ ũndũ wa mũhaka wa metha kana mbeca ciaku cia mũthako, nĩ wũragwo nĩ mũhari wothe, na mũhari ũcio nĩ mũnene tondũ nĩ ũguo ũthondeketwo.

“Ũngĩkorwo na mbeca cia mũthako nyingĩ kũigana, ndũngĩremwo.”

Mũhaka wa metha nĩ ũrũgamagia kũingĩhia maita meerĩ tene mbere ya mbeca cia mũthako nyingĩ gũthira. Hatarĩ mũhaka, mbeca cia mũthako iria ibatarĩtie ingĩhaga na ihenya inene mũno no baita o gĩthiũrũrũko kĩa mũtaratara ĩtigaraga ĩrĩ gĩthimo kĩmwe kĩa kĩambĩrĩria.

“Hasara ithathatũ irũmanĩrĩire itingĩhoteka.”

Harĩ ndune ũndũ ũcio ũkoragwo 1.83% ya mahinda ma mĩthiũrũrũko ĩtandatũ. Thĩinĩ wa ihinda rĩa mĩthiũrũrũko 200, kaingĩ nĩ ũkuona o na mũhari ũmwe wa hasara ithathatũ.

Gĩa gũtheka

Ũhootani mũnini maita maingĩ, hasara nene rĩmwe na rĩmwe. Na ũrĩhaga hasara ĩyo wee mwene.

Ũtuĩria wa hithabuMũbango wa Martingale rureti-inĩ ũgarũranagia mweke mũnene wa ũhootani mũnini na mweke mũnini wa hasara nene. Nĩ ta bima ĩrĩa yendetio na njĩra ĩgarũrũkĩte: wamũkagĩra mbeca nini ũtukũ mũingĩ na ũkarĩha hasara ĩyo nene ya rĩmwe na rĩmwe wee mwene. Nĩ ũingĩhagia mbeca cia beti o ihinda rĩa mũthako, kwoguo nĩ ũingĩhagia hasara ĩrĩa yetagĩrĩrwo o ihinda. Ndũnyihagia uumithio wa kasino na ndũngĩhota kũũnyihia. Ũngĩhũthĩra mũbango wa Martingale rureti-inĩ o na ũguo, menya mbere harĩa ũgũthũkĩra: na beti ya kĩambĩrĩria ya $10 na mũhaka wa $500, nĩ hasara ithathatũ irũmanĩrĩire, ũndũ ũrĩ na mweke wa 1.8% o kĩgerio. Rora Ũrũgamĩrĩri wa mbeca cia mũthako na Mũhaka wa hasara / mũhaka wa baita.